A Multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function-Based Scheme for the Balanced Initial Ensemble Generation of an Ensemble Kalman Filter          下载免费PDF全文

ZHENG Fei  ZHU Jiang 《大气和海洋科学快报》2010,3(3):165-169

The initial ensemble perturbations for an ensemble data assimilation system are expected to reasonably sample model uncertainty at the time of analysis to further reduce analysis uncertainty. Therefore, the careful choice of an initial ensemble perturbation method that dynamically cycles ensemble perturbations is required for the optimal performance of the system. Based on the multivariate empirical orthogonal function (MEOF) method, a new ensemble initialization scheme is developed to generate balanced initial perturbations for the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation, with a reasonable consideration of the physical relationships between different model variables. The scheme is applied in assimilation experiments with a global spectral atmospheric model and with real observations. The proposed perturbation method is compared to the commonly used method of spatially-correlated random perturbations. The comparisons show that the model uncertainties prior to the first analysis time, which are forecasted from the balanced ensemble initial fields, maintain a much more reasonable spread and a more accurate forecast error covariance than those from the randomly perturbed initial fields. The analysis results are further improved by the balanced ensemble initialization scheme due to more accurate background information. Also, a 20-day continuous assimilation experiment shows that the ensemble spreads for each model variable are still retained in reasonable ranges without considering additional perturbations or inflations during the assimilation cycles, while the ensemble spreads from the randomly perturbed initialization scheme decrease and collapse rapidly.  相似文献   

Dependence of the accuracy of precipitation and cloud simulation on temporal and spatial scales     

高守亭 《大气科学进展》2009,26(6):1108-1114

Precipitation and associated cloud hydrometeors have large temporal and spatial variability, which makes accurate quantitative precipitation forecasting difficult. Thus, dependence of accurate precipitation and associated cloud simulation on temporal and spatial scales becomes an important issue. We report a cloud-resolving modeling analysis on this issue by comparing the control experiment with experiments perturbed by initial temperature, water vapor, and cloud conditions. The simulation is considered to be accurate only if the root-mean-squared difference between the perturbation experiments and the control experiment is smaller than the standard deviation. The analysis may suggest that accurate precipitation and cloud simulations cannot be obtained on both fine temporal and spatial scales simultaneously, which limits quantitative precipitation forecasting. The accurate simulation of water vapor convergence could lead to accurate precipitation and cloud simulations on daily time scales, but it may not be beneficial to precipitation and cloud simulations on hourly time scales due to the dominance of cloud processes.  相似文献   

一种依据初始场构造的参考大气廓线及对高原地区预报的影响          下载免费PDF全文

张红亮  黄丽萍  陈嘉滨 《高原气象》2009,28(1):12-19

地形追随坐标系下的动力学方程组通常都要引入参考大气的概念来减少气压梯度力的计算误差.参考大气的一般取法是满足静止和静力平衡关系,实际大气被看成在参考大气上的偏差.实际大气与参考大气越接近,它们之间的偏差就越小,计算就越精确.参考大气的取法一般有等温大气、定常温度廓线、初始资料进行水平平均的垂直温度廓线等.本文在一个非静力的中尺度模式中选取经过水平平均的初始温度场的垂直廓线构造模式的参考大气廓线.但是初始资料在三维空间是离散的,这里根据三次样条函数的分段连续光滑的性质,构造了随起报时间不同而不同的,只随高度变化的解析形式的参考大气廓线.构造的参考大气廓线完全满足静力平衡关系,方程中的静力平衡部分可以得到最大限度地扣除.试验表明,与等温大气相比,这种根据初始状态选取的参考大气和实际资料更接近,在大地形附近气压梯度力的计算误差更小,500 hPa高原附近的24 h气压预报更精确.  相似文献   

Analysis Study on Perturbation Energy and Predictability of Heavy Precipitation in South China     

ZHU Benlu  LIN Wantao  ZHANG Yun 《大气科学进展》2010,27(2):382-392

The AREMv2.3 mesoscale numerical model is used to explore storm processes in South China during the pre-rainy season in 2006 by imposing perturbations on the initial fields of physical variables (temperature, humidity, and wind fields). Sensitivity experiments are performed to examine the impacts of initial uncertainties on precipitation, on the error growth, and on the predictability of mesoscale precipitation in South China. The primary conclusion is that inherent initial condition uncertainties can signi...  相似文献   

新一轮土地更新调查复合要素空间差异判别技术   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

吴瀚  曾珏  徐世武 《测绘通报》2017,(10):29

新一轮土地利用现状更新调查不仅大幅提升了数据的精度要求,将调查比例尺提高到1∶2000,而且强化了数据的更新检查机制,对过程有具体严格的要求。本文研究土地更新调查复合要素空间匹配与差异判别技术,提出了一种基于缓冲区膨胀的多尺度矢量空间数据匹配方法：一方面空间特征继承大比例尺地形地籍数据的高精度,属性特征集成多尺度的利用和权属现势信息,实现尺度间同名地物的有效融合;另一方面实现国家下发变化图斑与更新后土地利用调查现势图斑的计算机差异比较,确保更新过程严格、规范、自动化程度高。  相似文献   

循环荷载下堆积体残余变形特性          下载免费PDF全文

孙志亮  孔令伟  郭爱国  田海 《地震工程学报》2015,37(2):481-486

通过大型动三轴试验研究堆积体在不同应力水平、不同循环荷载幅值下残余应变与振次的关系,同时进行不同初始条件下残余应变的对比。试验发现堆积体在循环荷载下的残余应变与lg(1+N)有较好的线性关系(N≤30),沈珠江经验公式适用于堆积体在循环荷载下累积残余应变的计算。初始条件对堆积体的残余应变有重要影响,饱和不排水条件下残余剪应变最大,饱和排水条件次之,风干排气条件最小。应用沈珠江残余应变公式进行堆积体循环荷载下残余变形计算时应选取与工程实际条件相匹配的参数。  相似文献   

Progress in refining the global radiocarbon calibration curve using New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis) tree-ring series from Oxygen Isotope Stage 3     

《Quaternary Geochronology》2015

Ancient kauri (Agathis australis) buried in bogs across Northland, New Zealand, provide potential for a continuous high-precision radiocarbon calibration curve that extends to the full chronologic range of the dating method. Here we report four new tree-ring series which in addition to previous work represent some 5312 years across Oxygen Isotope Stage 3, a period during which human evolution, migration and extinction took place against a backdrop of extreme and abrupt global climate and environmental change. We compare our radiocarbon-dated series against three different calibration datasets and find considerable differences in the wiggle-matched solutions, demonstrating the difficulty in undertaking high-precision correlation between ice, marine and terrestrial sequences. One way around the apparent impasse is the use of ¹⁰Be in the Greenland and Antarctic ice cores to precisely link to kauri ¹⁴C from which a decadally/bidecadally-resolved floating ‘calibration’ dataset can be generated.  相似文献   

基于高斯样条函数的局部重力异常场解析重构     

童余德  边少锋  蒋东方 《测绘学报》2012,41(5):756-762

重力匹配辅助导航理论大都建立在离散场的基础上的,为了研究基于连续场重力匹配算法以克服传统匹配算法的局限,必须建立精度高且具有良好解析性质的局部重力异常场解析模型。利用斐波那契数列寻优方法对一维高斯样条函数插值进行最优化,在此基础上提出了基于斐波那契数列寻优的二维高斯样条函数逼近局部重力异常场方法。为了提高寻优算法运算速度,将二维准则函数解耦为X方向和Y方向两个独立的一维准则函数,分别采用斐波那契数列寻优方法对这两个准则函数进行寻优以获取X方向和Y方向最优参数,最终得到高精度逼近局部离散格网数据的局部重力异常场连续解析模型。仿真实验中采用五组不同的参数对变化范围为-51.185mGal~86.1819mGal的重力异常场进行逼近。从最后的仿真实验结果可以看出采用最优参数时逼近绝对误差均值达到0.00069,相对误差均值更达到10-6级,能较好的满足了匹配导航要求,其逼近精度较采用其它非最优参数时均有较大提高,由此验证了文中提出的重构算法有效性。  相似文献   

基于多源遥感影像快速更新基础地理信息技术的研究     

陈卫平  王海燕  赵敏  曹广强  屈颖 《东北测绘》2012,(5):28-32

在对多源遥感影像数据快速匹配处理、影像最佳波段组合和融合方法及更新信息变化发现识别技术进行研究试验的基础上,提出了基于多源遥感影像快速更新基础地理信息的技术方法和工艺流程。  相似文献   

一种具有双目立体量测功能工业内窥镜的设计与系统集成   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李少伟  王晴  黄桂平 《测绘工程》2012,21(1):67-69,80

介绍一款自行设计,具有量测功能的新型工业内窥镜系统。该系统有4个组成部分:视频采集部分、数据传输部分、数据处理及终端显示部分。基于双目立体摄影测量原理,设计一套具有量测功能的软件,初步实现量测功能,并能对管道内壁等人眼无法触及到的区域进行检测。  相似文献